Austin Mortgage Market Update - Last week's one housing report gave us the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales index, down 7.6% for January. But year over year, the NAR index is up 12.3%. Also, it's now at 90.4 and a score of 100 equals the average level of contract activity for 2001, the base year, when activity was at a record high. So pending sales are still in pretty good territory.
Using one standard deviation and a dart board, our bias is for 100k in job losses and a 9.9% unemployment rate. JPMorgan has the call at minus 90K and 9.9%, Barclays at Minus 75K and 9.8%, Wells Fargo at minus 80k and 9.7%, and Credit Suisse the outlier at minus 125K and 9.9%.
For the most part, it’s a quiet trading day with treasuries and mortgage backed product being supported by the massive MBS short/accelerated pay down program going on. Not sure how long this bid (buying frenzy) will go on but until it’s over, it will help our mortgage pricing.
Borrowers are best to take advantage of any price improvement by Thursday afternoon. Technically, the buying looks suspect because it is not endorsed by any daily study turning bullish. All are neutral, telling us that all we’re doing is rattling around in the range.
Speaking of unemployment, Friday’s number could be as weird as it gets. With the consensus call for job losses of 50K, a number of economists are talking about 100K in losses with John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics, calling for losses of 250K. Blame it on the weather. With spreads so wide you could drive a truck through them, Friday’s print will be one volatile ride.
Looking at last week’s rally, most of the trade was on short covering which means that traders were not initiating new long positions (expecting the market to continue to rally). We buy that argument and if correct, we would suggest that you “buy the rumor, sell the news”. In English, this means that mortgage pricing should remain relatively stable for most of the week and then worsen post Unemployment Report data on Friday
New home sales fell 11.2% in January to a record low level. Existing home sales weren't very pretty either, down 7.2%, though they're UP 11.5% over a year ago. Let's remember that last Fall we all thought the tax credit was going away at the end of November. Many sales got pushed into October and November, causing sales drops the next two months. But the median new home price is down just 2.4% year over year and the average price is now UP 3.7%. For an existing home, the median price is unchanged from a year ago and the average price is UP 2.6%. More evidence home prices are stabilizing, with some analysts expecting modest gains for the year. Supporting this, the Case-Shiller home price index was UP 0.3% in December, its seventh straight monthly rise.
