It finally appears seeds are being planted for a housing recovery. Fannie Mae's monthly survey reported that Americans expect home prices to drop just 0.5% in the next year. Some reported this as a negative because a 0.7% price gain was expected last month. But other analysts see this as a bottom, and those surveyed agree, as the majority (69%) believe it's a good time to buy a home.
Last week's housing market facts were so good, it was hard for commentators to distort them into the negative picture many like to paint. Wednesday's Pending Home Sales for May came in 8.2% ahead of April, the biggest monthly gain since November and 13.4% higher than May a year ago! This annual hike was the first in over a year, while the monthly gain points to sales increases come June and July. All regions were up, the Midwest leading with a 17.2% annual bump!
It certainly takes plenty of determination to find the opportunities in today's housing market. Last week the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Existing Home Sales down 3.8% in May to an annual rate of 4.81 million units, a six-month low. The median price was up for the month, though down 4.6% from a year ago. Inventories declined, but the months' supply increased to 9.3 because of the slower sales rate. Nevertheless, the NAR's economist opined, "...sales activity in the second half of the year is expected to be stronger than the first half, and will be much stronger than the second half of last year."
What was gaining on us last week were May Housing Starts, up 3.5% for the month to a higher-than-expected 560,000 unit annual rate. The gain included a 29% increase in multi-family starts, which are now up 17.5% over a year ago. New building permits were also up in May, by 8.7%, to a 612,000 annual rate. Permits indicate the level of starts a short time out, so some economists see the beginning of an upward trend. With the number of homes under construction at the lowest levels on record back to 1970, and as inventories continue to come down, home building will certainly need to grow considerably.
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There are those who think the housing market is in bad shape, with the start of a second dip in home prices. Then there are those who see something better -- a bumpy bottoming of home prices, which will soon head back up. Those of us in the second camp were given more ammunition last week by real estate data company Altos Research. Their evidence shows prices bottomed out in March and achieved seasonal rises in April and May. Their VP of market analytics said in a recent webcast: "We're pretty confident that means there is going to be a rebound.... There's still plenty of movement upside and we're going to probably move...back into positive ground."
Last Tuesday another housing market obstacle appeared in the form of Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Home Price Index for March. Prices for 20 major metro areas dropped 0.8% for the month and were down 3.6% from a year ago. These numbers had some folks claiming the double dip in housing prices had arrived. But Case-Shiller's longer term data reveals that in their 20 measured metros, home prices are still UP 38.2% since January 2000.
Hopefully, we won't need the patience of a Michelangelo waiting for the housing market to achieve normalcy, but most of today's economic geniuses say we'll have to hang in there a bit longer. On the plus side, new single-family home sales for April were UP 7.3%, beating expectations two months in a row. For the first time in nearly four years, sales were up in every region. Inventory fell to 6.5 months, its lowest level since 1963 and the median price was UP 4.6% from a year ago. On the minus side, the Pending Home Sales index was down 11.6% for April after two months of gains. April wasn't the greatest home shopping month, with widespread severe weather, the heaviest rain in 20 years and rising oil prices slowing things down.
People wonder if housing is moving in the right direction, especially after April Housing Starts fell 10.6% to an annual rate of 523,000 units. But a closer look reveals the decline was due mostly to multi-family units, which are volatile month to month and actually up 6.6% from a year ago. Also, the biggest drop was in the South, which had been hit with severe tornados. Outside that region, starts were UP 5.5%! Homes under construction are at their lowest level since 1970, so some areas may rebound from shortages in the next few months. Following a March rise, Existing Home Sales were down just 0.8% in April and the seasonally adjusted annual rate is still above 5 million. Total inventory edged up to 9.2 months.
Our resolution to succeed in the real estate market was given a bit of a boost with the National Association of Realtors (NAR) report that existing home sales were up 8.3% in the first quarter over the fourth quarter of last year. Plus, on a quarter-to-quarter basis, sales rose in every region of the country. Year-over-year, sales were virtually flat, slipping just 0.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.14 million homes.
