Greece is the word
When something happens to change the dynamics of the Euro fiasco, we will see a reversal of fortune in mortgage pricing. The economic fundaments of our country just don’t support lower Austin mortgage rates.
When something happens to change the dynamics of the Euro fiasco, we will see a reversal of fortune in mortgage pricing. The economic fundaments of our country just don’t support lower Austin mortgage rates.
riday, March Housing Starts came in above expectations, UP 1.6%, at an annual rate of 626,000 units. Throw in revisions to February and starts were UP 8.9%. Single-family starts were down a tad for the month, but for all of Q1, they were UP at a 41% annual rate versus the Q4 average. New Building Permits for March also beat estimates, UP 7.5% to a 685,000 annual rate. Some experts feel we're in the early stage of a substantial rebound in home building. And they point out that the pace of building is still slow enough that inventories can come down even as new construction increases.
The Case-Shiller home price index came in last week with nine out of the 20 cities in the survey posting year-over-year gains. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the 20-city composite index rose from December to January by 0.3%. The chairman of the index committee noted, "...we continue to see improvements in the year-over-year data for all 20 cities." The report also stated,"annual rates for the two composites have not been this close to a positive (point) since January 2007."
February existing home sales were down for the third month in a row, but the 0.6% drop was less than expected. We had severe winter weather putting a damper on things and we're still seeing the hangover from sales pushed into October and November when everyone thought the homebuyer tax credit was going away. February new single-family home sales were down 2.2%. But the median price of $220,500 was UP 5.2% over last year and the average price of $282,600 was a strong 9.3% UP from a year ago. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects existing home sales to be UP almost 4% this year to 5.34 million, going to 5.72 million in 2011. They see new home sales hitting 398,000 in 2010 and 528,000 the following year.
There wasn't a ton of housing news last week, but one can always find a few significant items. For example, foreclosure filings in February were down 2% from January and up just 6% from a year ago -- their smallest increase in four years. Most significantly, in the six states that made up 61% of the national total for February, foreclosure filings were down 15% from a year ago. We're definitely heading in the right direction.
The National Association of Realtors last Thursday reported existing home sales UP 27.2% for the last three months of 2009 versus a year earlier. This amounted to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6 million homes. -- a 13.9% increase over the third quarter's annual rate of 5.29 million homes. Clearly, buyers are taking advantage of the low mortgage interest rates and the tax credit that was extended and expanded by Congress.
Thursday the Wall Street Journal reported Q3 home sales at an annual rate of 5.3 million units. That was an 11.4% gain over Q2's 4.76 million units. Experts put much of the rising sales to the tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time homebuyers. A week ago Friday, the President signed a bill extending that tax credit well into next year and expanding it to first-time buyers with higher incomes as well as to existing homeowners, with a $6,500 limit. National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun feels "rising sales from the expanded tax credit should stabilize home prices by next spring."
For the third week in a row, rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages remained below 5% in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The average for conforming mortgages was 4.92% with an average of 0.7 point (including the origination fee) for 80% loan-to-value ratio loans to borrowers with good credit.