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S&P

Austin Mortgage Market Update – For the week of October 4, 2010

Last week's housing market data centered on Standard & Poor's S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. This showed home prices UP in July for the fourth month in a row, but the pace of their gain had slowed from prior months. With the expiration of the government's home buyer tax incentives, some observers wonder if the S&P/Case-Shiller will keep moving up. The composite 20-city index, a broad measure of U.S. home prices, showed a 3.2% increase year over year, the sixth month in a row it posted an annual gain.

Austin Mortgage Market Update – For the week of September 27, 2010

As promised, last week's reports gave us a complete picture of the housing market in August. Housing Starts rose 10.5% month-over-month to a 598,000 annual rate, well ahead of the expected 550,000 number. Building Permits, which reflect builder sentiment further out, grew a more modest 1.8% month-over-month to a slightly smaller 569,000 annual rate. Thursday, Existing Home Sales came in UP 7.6% over July, at a 4.13 million annual rate. But let's remember, July was a record low, so this gain still left sales down 19% from August a year ago. The median price for Existing Homes, however, ticked up 0.8% year-over-year, as reported by the National Association of Realtors.

Austin Mortgage Market Update – For the week of May 3, 2010

Last Tuesday's S&P Case-Shiller home price index reported that homes in 20 major U.S. cities were WORTH MORE in February 2010 than they were in February 2009 -- the first year-to-year INCREASE in values in over three years! The good news of this 0.6% annual gain was tempered by a small monthly decline in prices from January to February. But remember, February's unusually stormy weather make it a tough month for real estate in much of the country. ??Corroborating Case-Shiller, a second home price index also showed a national gain in home prices for February 2010 compared to February 2009. This was the First American CoreLogic HPI, an index including distressed sales, which reported a home price increase of 0.3% for the year.

The consensus among analysts seems to be for another 10% decline in home prices in 2010, making a new bottom

The S&P / Case Shiller home price index fell in October after five straight monthly increases. While the decline was barely measurable, it serves as a reminder that the bounce back in real estate prices is not likely to occur as quickly as the three-year decline. The consensus among analysts seems to be for another 10% decline in home prices in 2010, making a new bottom.

Austin Mortgage Market – For the week of December 21, 2009

We saw strong evidence last week that homebuilders are well on their way to recovery. Housing starts for November were UP 8.9%, to an annual rate of 574,000 units. Single-family starts were 35.0% higher than their January and February lows. The very volatile multi-units starts were UP 67.3% from the previous month's cyclical low. And get this -- starts were UP in every major region across the country!

Austin Mortgage Market Update – For the week of November 30, 2009

The economic reports before Thanksgiving were packed with housing market data and, guess what, they were all extremely positive! Monday saw Existing Home Sales UP 10.1% to an annual rate of 6.10 million, the highest since February 2007. Sales are now UP 20% in the past two months and UP 36% from their January lows. Even better, the supply of existing homes was down to just 7 months, with inventories down to 3.57 million, the lowest level in almost three years. This puts existing homes very close to the 6-month supply level of a healthy housing market. The Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index rose 0.3% in September. The index also showed its second consecutive quarterly increase, UP 3.1% for Q3, returning to August 2003 levels.

Much of Friday’s increase in yields was associated with perceptions of growing economic strength and possible impacts on inflation

What a difference a long weekend makes as the majority of sellers rode off into the sunset and have not returned to rule the day as they did on Friday. Selling late last week eliminated some bullish signals off our current trend that had been established earlier this month. The drop did however find some support at the 21-day moving average at 118-055, which is also where an up-sloping trend line off the August/September lows lies. The reaction to that area suggests that selling momentum is unlikely to immediately build on the shift away from the bullish camp. Much of Friday's increase in yields was associated with perceptions of growing economic strength and possible impacts on inflation.