October Housing Starts fell 10.6% to 529k units (annualized). Some have blamed the fall on uncertainty over the 8K first time home buyers stimulus while others point to a consumer who is unemployed and over budget.
Market action, as I mentioned earlier has been a two way street. With earning season (stocks) in full swing, volatility has really picked up in both equities and bonds. Mortgage backs have been the worst performer on the day with spreads to treasuries widening as sellers continue to lean on the market. Currently, the 10 year note is off 7/32’s (yield 3.45%), MBS off 9/32’s, and stocks off only 1 point on the big board. Technically, we are trading a lower lows, lower highs type of pattern. By nature it is bearish and suggests higher interest rates, worsening Austin mortgage pricing present the higher probability. We will want to pay close attention the 10 year yield as it approaches 3.48% - 3.50%. That level is key support and “should” provide a near term bottom, followed by a rebound. If that level does not hold, MBS could feel another ½ point of pain. Play defense as the trend is not your friend!
Austin Mortgage Market Update - At the end of September, the supply of homes for sale was reported down 1.8% from the previous month in 27 major metropolitan areas. We all know the factors. Home prices are very affordable, mortgage rates and very favorable and first-time homebuyers are taking advantage of the $8,000 tax credit set to expire at the end of November, now just seven weeks away. The Mortgage Bankers Association saw loan applications for home purchases rise 13.2% last week, as the MBA's Purchase Index hit its highest level since last January. The average rate on 30-year fixed rate mortgage slid to 4.89% with an average 1.13 points (including the origination fee) for 80% loan-to-value ratio loans to borrowers with good credit. Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgage rates put the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 4.87% with an average 0.7 point for 80% loan-to-value ratio loans to borrowers with good credit.
Recently, Fed officials have sent mixed signals about how soon the Fed may need to begin to tighten monetary policy. Wednesday, the Fed's Hoenig said that the Fed should begin raising interest rates "sooner rather than later," and that this action wouldn't end the economic recovery. He explained that the Fed has a long way to go just to return to a neutral monetary stance and that it will take a while for the impact of rate hikes to be felt. Thursday evening, Bernanke held with the stated view that low rates will likely be justified for "an extended period", but he added that the Fed will be ready to remove stimulus as the economy recovers. When the Fed eventually indicates that it's ready to act, Austin mortgage rates will be likely to move higher.
Volatile trade in both stocks and MBS has markets moving once again. Stocks were off over 100 points on higher than expected ADP jobs estimates and a sour Chicago Purchasing Managers report. Mortgage backs opened to the down side, off 2/32’s for much of the morning. That has all changed as stocks have now gone positive (up 16 points on the Dow) while mortgage backs are feeling the pressure, down 5/32’s. Spreads between MBS and Treasuries have also widen, akin to throwing salt in the wound. Best bet is to be watchful of the market into the Friday Employment Report.
Cash seeking a return and/or shelter from our wicked world once again is running to Treasuries. The trade however has been on both sides of unchanged due to all of the above. Stocks have moved from red to green and back to red again, currently off 19 points on the Dow. The 10 year note is up 5/32’s, trading at 3.35%. That level is significant as referenced in yesterday’s Market Update. Any close below 3.36% will shift the advantage to the bulls. Given the “outside day down” on the S & P chart Wednesday, along with continued pressure yesterday and today, we could be seeing the beginning of a nice correction in stocks.
With the FOMC dust settled, a couple of points are worth mentioning. First up, the FOMC made no mention of an exit strategy, instead talking about keeping Austin mortgage rates low for an extended period of time. Number two was the statement about continuing the purchase of Treasuries and MBS and extending the period until the end of Q1, allowing for a wind down period. Seems obvious that they are more concerned about housing and the economy versus inflation and deficits. One reason for the accommodative policy may be the building inventory due to future delinquency and foreclosures, estimated to be 7 million units. This is what we call “shadow inventory”, not yet on the books but in the pipeline nonetheless. That number is huge, representing an entire year of sales. We shall see.
No change in rates, longer term inflation in check, and low level of interest rates for an extended period of time. They will also continue to buy Treasuries and MBS. Market are volatile but holding, albeit at lower levels. MBS off 9/32’s
Rumor mill bantering is talking about the Fed using “Reverse Repos” to drain dollars out of the system, taking away excess reserves. In general, this exercise is nothing new if explained in the proper context to the market. If it is labeled a policy change, the market will feel that this is the beginning of a shift in policy, one towards tightening/removal of accommodation. English translation would means higher interest rates. This kind of shift would cause forced selling in both bonds and stocks and not treat us mortgage types well. We believe it is a little too early in the recovery cycle for this type of policy change, given our current level of unemployment along with a number of other fragile components of the economy. No doubt the Fed is walking a tight rope, trying to sound confident and optimistic while still keeping the training wheels on the economy.
If you were holding your breath, it’s ok to exhale. [...]
